Limited power & limited production. Tough time for the winter of 2020

Recently, in Hunan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other provinces, there have been restrictions on electricity consumption that have not been seen for many years. In order to ensure that the electricity consumption of residents is not affected, the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments and enterprises have taken measures to ensure the power demand and ensure that the power supply is generally stable and orderly.

Due to the high-speed growth of industrial production and the superposition of low temperature and cold current, the demand for electricity has grown faster than expected. Winter is coming early this year, and due to the reduction of coal burning, the drop in reservoir water levels, the inability of wind power to generate electricity effectively due to freezing, and the reduction of external power, the power supply in many areas is relatively severe. "Power rationing" and "shifting production", power rationing orders rarely strike in winter.


Zhejiang province: Export orders surge, power supply is tight

As a major processing and manufacturing province in Zhejiang, power rationing is mainly affected by the advent of industrial power peaks and increasing pressure on power supply guarantees. Foreign companies are still in a state of shutdown due to the epidemic. A large number of manufacturing orders for Christmas and New Year, which are based on high energy-consuming industries such as chemical fiber, chemical industry, printing and dyeing, and textile, have been transferred to Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places in China. In November, the total export value of Zhejiang Province reached 238.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. Foreign trade is fierce, orders are full, and companies work overtime to produce, but they also put tremendous pressure on Zhejiang's power supply guarantee.


Henan Province: Power shortages, producers stop production

Recently, Henan No. 1 Thermal Power Company issued an emergency letter regarding capital shortage and coal shortage. A document titled "Letter from Henan Nengxin Thermal Power Co., Ltd. on Capital Tightness and Coal Shortage" was circulated in Xuchang City. The letter stated that it is currently making every effort to ensure the heating of Xuchang residents, but the current plant has only more than 10,000 tons of coal. Due to Yongmei’s default event, the company’s financing channels were interrupted and there was a serious shortage of funds. There was no capital to purchase coal. If the funds were not raised in time, the supply of coal would be interrupted and the units would be shut down.


Changsha, Hunan: Restricting industrial power consumption, enterprises staggered production

According to the official website of the Changsha Municipal Development and Reform Commission, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission requested that the province start power rationing measures from December 8. More than 7,000 large industrial and general industrial and commercial enterprises in the city are required to produce electricity at peak shifts, avoid peaks, and limit industrial electricity consumption such as high energy consumption and high emissions.

According to the staff of the Changsha Electric Power Department, the power curtailment is related to the sudden drop in temperature and the sudden increase in power consumption. State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company expects that the province's electricity demand will exceed the power supply limit of the Hunan Power Grid this winter and next spring. There will be a gap of 3 to 4 million kilowatts of electricity and a gap of 0.1 to 20 million kilowatt-hours of electricity available per day.

The aforementioned news from the Hunan Provincial People's Government pointed out that the relatively lagging power generation capacity is an important reason for the power supply gap in Hunan Province. On November 30, Hunan’s power coal inventory fell by 18.5% year-on-year. In the later period, coal supply in northern areas was tight and transportation capacity during the Spring Festival was limited. The situation of power coal storage and transportation in this province is not optimistic, which may have a negative impact on the power generation of thermal power companies.


Jiangxi province: Implement interruptible load in the morning and evening peak period

Affected by the cold wave, the Jiangxi Power Grid coordinated the power load and dispatched power generation and received power to a record high. The Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission decided that starting from December 15th, interruptible loads will be implemented in the morning and evening peak periods, and orderly power usage will be started.


Chongqing: Coal mines stop production for rectification, increasing power supply shortage

On December 9, Chongqing held a video and telephone conference on work safety and social stability. Next, Chongqing will carry out in-depth investigation and rectification of hidden dangers in the coal mine field, and strictly implement the management and control measures of shutting down and rectifying mines. As early as four days ago, all coal mines in the city had stopped working and production, and coal mines that were included in the closure and exit were not allowed to go down.


Inner Mongolia: Power shortage, orderly power adjustment

Ulanqab is facing a shortage of power. Due to insufficient system output, the Ulanqab area is expected to have a shortfall of 3 million KW. It is not ruled out that the power shortage will increase in the future. In the early stage, Ulanqab issued an orderly power plan notice. Since the 4th quarter, ferroalloys in Ulanqab will implement orderly power adjustments and implement different power arrangements for different capacity electric furnaces.

In addition to the above areas, Huaihua, Yongzhou and other places in Hunan have officially started orderly electricity consumption on December 5. There are also many factories on the Internet that have "exposed" the status quo and stated that they have indeed begun to curtail power and stop production.

Shaanxi Province, which has traditionally been regarded as a "large energy province", has also experienced excessive power loads and a tight balance between power supply and demand.

As far as the chemical industry is concerned, on the one hand, electricity curtailment and coal shortage will impose certain restrictions on the production of chemical plants. On the other hand, the suspension and production restrictions of various downstream manufacturers have also suppressed market demand and affected the chemical market.

From the perspective of the plastics industry alone, the overall operating rate of PP powder and plastic woven enterprises above designated size has dropped from 5% to 47% month-on-month, which is 6% lower than the same period last year. Some areas in Zhejiang advocate energy saving and consumption reduction, and the start-up load is greatly reduced. Some small factories may be closed earlier. Therefore, the recent market performance of PP powder and propylene monomer has been fluctuating, which is not satisfactory.

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